Is China’s gray-zone pressure targeting the Batanes? Taiwan’s southern waters emerge as US-Philippines defense focus

International—Tensions between China and the Philippines continue to rise in the South China Sea and around the Luzon Strait. The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 9 that some Chinese scholars and media outlets had recently advanced historical and sovereignty claims involving the Batanes Islands, the Philippines’ northernmost island group. Located about 160 kilometers south of Taiwan and near the Bashi Channel, the islands have drawn attention because the waters form an important maritime route between Taiwan and the Philippines.

The Wall Street Journal said the Batanes’ location gives them strategic significance for security in the Taiwan Strait. If China continues to reinforce its claims through academic arguments, media messaging and maritime activity, it could heighten regional concerns about Beijing’s next steps. That does not mean China has formally taken military action, however, and Beijing’s decision to alter the status quo cannot be inferred from scholars’ comments alone.

Why are the Batanes drawing attention?

The Batanes Islands lie in the northern Philippines, near the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and Luzon. The channel links the South China Sea with the western Pacific and is an important corridor for commercial shipping and military activity in the region.

The United States and the Philippines have continued to strengthen defense cooperation in recent years, holding joint military exercises in the northern Philippines near Taiwan. In May 2026, the two militaries deployed the Marine Corps’ Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) in the Batanes to test mobile deployment and anti-ship capabilities in remote areas.

Reuters reported at the time that the exercise was intended to improve the two countries’ ability to coordinate and respond during a regional crisis. For the United States, the geography of the northern Philippines and the shipping conditions in the Bashi Channel are important considerations in planning western Pacific defense.

Philippines rejects China’s claims

The dispute did not begin in October. Philippine government materials show that some Chinese scholars at a seminar in Guangzhou in late June 2026 argued that the Batanes were geographically connected to Taiwan and used that claim to assert that China has sovereignty over the islands.

The Philippine government publicly rejected the argument. In July, the National Historical Commission of the Philippines said the historical claims lacked sufficient basis and reiterated that the Batanes are part of Philippine territory.

The dispute has also extended to surrounding waters. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs said on Oct. 2 that the Chinese survey vessel JIA HAI KE 7 had operated about 37 nautical miles northwest of Itbayat Island in the Batanes, within the Philippines’ claimed exclusive economic zone. Manila said it had not authorized the vessel to conduct marine scientific research and called on China to comply with international law.

The Chinese Embassy in the Philippines, meanwhile, claimed that the waters fell under Chinese jurisdiction, contradicting the Philippine position. The two sides have different interpretations of their rights over the waters and the vessel’s activities.

Reports on the dispute must therefore distinguish between the territorial status of the Batanes themselves and the jurisdictional dispute over surrounding waters, rather than treating the two issues as one.

‘Gray-zone’ strategy raises security concerns

“Gray-zone” activities generally refer to measures that fall between routine diplomacy, law enforcement and open military conflict. Examples include coast guard patrols, research vessel operations, propaganda and historical claims, as well as other actions that may change conditions on the ground without directly crossing into open war.

The Wall Street Journal examined the Chinese academic and media narratives in this context, saying they could help establish a public-opinion backdrop for future political or maritime action. But this is an analysis of possible strategic intentions, not a confirmed military plan.

For the Philippines, the main concern is protecting its territory and maritime rights. For the United States, the issue involves defense cooperation with the Philippines and the security of key shipping routes in the western Pacific. For Taiwan, increased maritime activity in the Bashi Channel and surrounding waters could affect regional shipping, as well as transportation and resupply arrangements during a crisis.

How the issue relates to Taiwan’s security

The Batanes lie south of Taiwan and are geographically connected to waters southeast of Taiwan and the Philippines’ northern defense posture. If maritime friction in the region increases, Taiwan, the Philippines, the United States and other parties will all need to monitor shipping safety, maritime law enforcement and military communications.

For now, publicly available information confirms that China and the Philippines have openly clashed over activities and claims involving waters near the Batanes, while the United States and the Philippines continue their defense cooperation. Whether China will expand its actions further remains to be seen through subsequent official statements, vessel movements and concrete policy measures.

The Batanes dispute highlights that Taiwan’s security is not limited to the Taiwan Strait. It is also closely linked to maritime routes through the Bashi Channel, the South China Sea and the western Pacific. How regional parties handle sovereignty claims, maritime law enforcement and military deployments will be an important indicator of the Indo-Pacific security environment.