China Tells Citizens to Leave Eswatini, One of 12 States Still Recognising Taiwan

China has advised its nationals to leave the last African country that maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

The consular affairs department of China's foreign ministry said on Tuesday that Chinese nationals and institutions already in Eswatini should evacuate as soon as possible or relocate to relatively safer areas such as South Africa, citing rampant cyber fraud and online gambling criminal activities among ongoing security concerns.

Those who insist on travelling to or remaining in the area will face extremely high security risks, the department said in a statement shared on WeChat, adding that the timeliness of consular assistance may be affected.

Eswatini rejected the characterisation. The government said on Wednesday that the claim of a security risk in the small country was unsupported and regrettable, and that it will not be coerced, disadvantaged or destabilised over its foreign policy choices.

The diplomatic context

Eswatini is one of just 12 countries that still recognise Taiwan, and the only one in Africa.

Taiwan's president visited the kingdom in May. Taipei accused Beijing of attempting to derail the trip by pressuring nearby countries to revoke flyover permits.

On 1 May, China extended a zero-tariff policy to all African countries with a single exception: Eswatini.

That sequence — tariff exclusion in May, an advisory to leave in August — is why Eswatini's response addressed foreign policy rather than security. Beijing's stated rationale is criminal activity; Mbabane's answer was about coercion.

What is documented on the security question

There is a factual basis to the criminal activity Beijing cites, though its scale relative to the advisory is a matter of judgement.

Eswatini has arrested at least 55 Chinese citizens this year in a crackdown on an alleged online gambling, extortion and cyber-fraud network. A commerce ministry source put the total number of Chinese nationals in the country at more than 200, working principally in textiles, retail and restaurants.

An advisory urging evacuation therefore concerns a community of a few hundred people, of whom a quarter have been arrested in connection with an alleged criminal network — the same activity Beijing names as its reason for the warning.

Both readings are available: a state protecting nationals from a genuine criminal environment, or diplomatic pressure delivered through consular channels. The two are not mutually exclusive.

What to watch

Whether Chinese nationals actually leave is the first indicator. An advisory is not an order, and the commercial presence in textiles and retail is long-established.

The second is Eswatini's position. Twelve countries recognise Taiwan, down from more than 20 a decade ago, and each defection has followed sustained economic and diplomatic engagement from Beijing. Eswatini's statement was unusually direct.

The third is Taipei's response. Taiwan has historically moved to reinforce relations with allies under pressure, and its president's May visit indicates the relationship is an active priority.