Taiwan’s Population to Halve by 2075 as Fertility Falls to Record Low of 0.695

Taiwan is projected to lose almost half its population over the next fifty years, and the workforce underpinning its semiconductor and artificial intelligence industries will age well before it shrinks.

The population is expected to fall to 12.15 million by 2075, a 48% decline from this year, according to National Development Council projections released on Friday.

The composition changes faster than the total. From 2037 — eleven years away — more than half of Taiwan's working-age population is projected to be aged between 45 and 64, signalling the end of an era in which the economy could rely on a relatively large labour force.

That matters for a growth model built on a broad manufacturing workforce and a growing supply of highly skilled workers.

The fertility assumption was lowered

The council did not simply extend existing trends. It revised its own forecasts downward.

Taiwan's fertility rate fell to a record low of 0.695 last year, significantly below previous estimates, prompting the council to lower its long-term fertility assumptions. A rate of roughly 2.1 is required to hold a population steady.

The underlying arithmetic is harder to reverse than the rate itself. The number of women aged 20 to 49 has been declining since peaking in 2005, and the proportion of married women within that group has also fallen. A shrinking pool of potential mothers makes a sustained recovery in births increasingly difficult, the council said.

That is the distinction between a fertility problem and a demographic one. Policy can influence how many children women have. It cannot quickly change how many women of childbearing age exist.

The milestones

The projections set out a sequence rather than a single endpoint.

Taiwan's population is expected to fall below 20 million in 2045, reaching 19.98 million. At that point people aged 65 or older would account for 37% of the population, working-age people 57.9% and children just 5.2%.

By 2075 the imbalance becomes more pronounced: older people at 52.9%, working-age at 42.3% and children at 4.8%.

The dependency ratio — children and elderly people relative to those of working age — is projected to rise from 55.2 dependents per 100 working-age people to 136.6. The potential support ratio would fall below one, meaning fewer than one working-age person for every person aged 65 or over.

What the government is doing

Taiwan is preparing for a permanently smaller workforce rather than attempting to reverse the trend outright.

A population strategy task force has been established, and in May the government launched 18 measures covering childbirth support, childcare, education, workplace policies and housing. Further packages are planned targeting elderly people, talent development across all age groups and the recruitment of overseas talent.

For businesses, the council said, the implications extend beyond hiring: greater pressure to raise labour force participation among older workers, attract workers from overseas, and accelerate automation and productivity gains.

That last point contains a certain symmetry. Taiwan manufactures the chips powering the automation that its own demographics will increasingly require.

What to watch

The 2037 marker is the nearest and most consequential. A working-age population majority aged 45 to 64 arrives within the planning horizon of firms currently building fabs.

The second is overseas recruitment. Taiwan has historically been cautious on immigration, and the council's own framing now places talent attraction alongside childbirth support as a policy priority.

The third is whether fertility assumptions are revised again. This round lowered them after the rate came in below estimates. That has happened before.